The tape keeps punishing bears who keep leaning on every TD 13 as if it’s a sell signal — but without confirmation, those counts are nothing more than noise, and the market keeps ripping to new highs. Last week sealed the deal with SPX, INDU, and CCMP all pressing fresh records, while the Russell 2000 surged 2.5% to its own ATH.
“The last time we saw this many DeMark 13s, Lehman still had a ticker.”
Markets were poised coming into CPI — and now they’re exploding higher post-print, validating price-led signals over headline noise. Despite multiple DeMark 13s flashing recently, none were confirmed by bearish price flips, reinforcing the notion that technical exhaustion has not yet matured into full reversal.
Bulls still control the tape—but it’s no longer a clean, one-way grind. Momentum is shifting beneath the surface. Breadth is deteriorating, sector leadership is cracking, and Asia just threw a brick through the windshield.
. Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot adds fuel, with markets now pricing nearly a 90% chance of a September cut, flipping Fed policy from headwind to tailwind. The takeaway is unchanged: support levels (6,371 / 6,299) remain intact, breadth confirms strength, and until/unless 6,519 rejects price hard, the path of most pain for the SPX is still higher, with 6,648–6,661 the next magnet.
Three new highs on the board last week — SPX, INDU, and RUT — and the bears are still grumbling about divergences while the tape keeps grinding higher. Powell went full dove at Jackson Hole, effectively locking in a September cut, and the 10-year can’t lift off the floor with the roadmap still pointing to 4.15.
The S&P 500 made three new all-time highs last week before stalling into Friday’s close. This week, sentiment briefly buckled — QQQ skew hit a 3-year high, Bloomberg ran crash protection headlines, and short positioning ticked higher — but the market refused to break.
The majors keep grinding higher and printing new highs, but make no mistake — this is still a prove-it tape. The surface looks bullish, but what matters most is underneath: narrow breadth, unresolved divergences, and a market being driven almost entirely by rotations rather than broad participation.
While the patterns aren’t yet complete, the technical storm clouds are gathering and suggest markets might be on the cusp of a material move lower.
Yes, we’re overbought. The S&P has been steady-state overbought since mid-May, grinding higher with barely a pause. And remember: markets can stay overbought longer than you can stay short — ask anyone who’s tried.