Last week we said the tape was fragile — now we’re calling for a top. Moody’s lit the match, but the setup was already leaning. This week confirmed it: bearish price flips across U.S. and European indices, TD Reference Close breaks, and 13s have rolled into live execution signals. What started as a sentiment wobble has become a momentum shift.
Exhaustion signals were already stacking — now the Moody’s downgrade may be the macro accelerant that forces the unwind. SPX has printed TD Combo 13, CCMP and INDU are stretched, and DXY has flipped into a live breakdown. This isn’t just a sentiment reset — it’s a repricing of risk across the board.
We identified the April rally and mapped the bounce. Now, the exhaustion setup hasn’t just lined up—it’s printed and completed. The NDX and SPX have confirmed with perfected TD 9 Sells, and the Dow will join them today with a close above 40,669. Add to that a confirmed 9 Sell on the NYSE Composite and a VIX 9 Buy—this is broad-based exhaustion. Everything’s flashing caution.
After calling the April lows and targeting 5,641–5,646, we’ve now arrived. The S&P 500 has rallied nine straight sessions, tagging our target zone and stalling just shy of its 200-day moving average at 5,746.
DXY just printed a TD Sequential 13 Buy off the Mar 14 TD 9. Second 9 setup hit Apr 22.
Block out the noise. Last week’s action was loud and clear: the tape is turning. Fed chatter, tariff talk, AI hype—none of it matters as
Monday’s flush, Wednesday’s face-ripper, Thursday’s whiplash, and a Friday finish that caught a bid—last week had everything but resolution. Yes, we’re bouncing, but let’s not confuse this with a change in trend. The market hit a wall of oversold sentiment, and Trump’s tariff pause lit the match.
One-day wonder rallies across indices failed to follow through—TD 9 buys wiped out, downtrends firmly intact. SPX, CCMP, and INDU all rejected upside momentum and now eye retests of key supports. Europe continues to fade off weak opens—DAX gap at 20,025 in play, SX5E eyes 4,730 break. Yields bounced, but TD countdown still live. Gold finds legs after holding support. EUR/USD grinds higher—bull trend intact. Stay tactical.
We’re now at TD 7 of 13 in SPX, and the trend remains firmly bearish. Despite back-to-back small gains following Friday’s 1.97% selloff, the market is still clearly trending lower.
As discussed in Wednesday’s note, “a tactical rally does not change the trend” in stocks. Thus, after a short-term relief rally, the technical signs point to further weakness ahead. Stocks aside, we would also suggest keeping a very close eye on FX and, in particular, EURUSD, where a small shift of momentum either way could trigger the next directional move.