“Momentum ends the way it begins—quietly, then all at once.”- Marty Zweig
On Tuesday morning, bulls still control the tape—but it’s no longer a clean, one-way grind. Momentum is shifting beneath the surface. Breadth is deteriorating, sector leadership is cracking, and Asia just threw a brick through the windshield. Last week, we laid out the bull case clearly: SPX sitting at 6,466 with building momentum, a bullish 10 of 13 Sequential, Combo 9 of 13, and upside markers at 6,519 and then 6,648–6,661. That roadmap played out almost to the tick, with NVDA’s supposed 13 sell catalyst quickly shrugged off, sparking rotation into laggards and broadening out the tape. Powell’s Jackson Hole tone shift was the accelerant—odds of a September rate cut have since pushed to nearly 90%, flipping Fed policy from headwind to tailwind. But now comes the test. We’re pushing right into major exhaustion levels just as macro, sentiment, and global price action start flashing red. Europe’s leaders—Banks—are breaking down. US Tech is flashing early topping signals. Asia printed a clean cluster of Sequential 13s and bearish flips. Bitcoin is diverging from equities in a way that’s historically front-run broader market stress. And the sell-side? Still loudly bullish—classic setup for a reversal. If this were just technicals, we’d be watching 6,519 as the next inflection. But this isn’t just technicals anymore. The calendar is loaded: payrolls, CPI, FOMC. Volatility is mispriced. Positioning is stretched. And risk is creeping back in, even if price hasn’t cracked yet. Bottom line: The tape is still trending higher—but the path of least resistance may no longer be up. This is where bull markets get harder, not easier. Respect the signals. And be ready to pivot.
Summary
- SPX: TD 10 of 13; stalling under 6,468/6,519; support 6,439 then 6,299.
- Dow: TD 13 sell; watch 45,636 up or 45,282 down for next move.
- Nasdaq: Failing to clear 21,705; support 21,449.
- Euro Stoxx 50: Bears holding short-term control; support 5,261/5,222.
- DAX: Rangebound four months; bias lower unless 24,648 clears.
- 10Y Yield: Heavy at 4.29; roadmap still 4.15.
- DXY: No pulse; risk is drift lower toward 95.8.
- EUR/USD: Bulls holding, but capped at 1.1790.
- Gold: Broken out, trading 3,547 on TD 7 of 9; target 3,668.
- EEM: Stretched into resistance at 50.7.
SPX Index Closed 6,460 on TD 10 of 13, stalling just below resistance at 6,468/6,519. Momentum is narrowing, MACD flattening, and breadth fading. First support is the TD Ref Close at 6,439, then 6,299. Lose 6,299 and the door opens to 6,117 and the 200-day at 5,944. Unless bulls break 6,519 with conviction, the roadmap skews lower.
SPX Index
INDU Index The Dow has printed a TD 13 sell. Consolidation continues, but momentum is clearly fading. Watch 45,636 (TD Ref Close Up) and 45,282 (TD Ref Close Down). A close below 45,282 flips momentum to the bears and opens 43,975. Above 45,636, bulls can squeeze higher, but right now it looks tired.
INDU Index
CCMP Index The Nasdaq closed 21,455, stuck under resistance. First marker is 21,705, then 21,836. Support sits at 21,449. Failure to clear resistance keeps this vulnerable, especially with semis (SOX, SMH) showing exhaustion. Breadth narrowing is a warning — fewer names are driving performance, leaving the index exposed if leadership falters.
CCMP Index
SX5E Index Euro Stoxx 50 sits on TD 6 of 9, giving bears near-term control. Support rests at 5,261 then 5,222. The broader uptrend isn’t broken, but there’s no momentum to confirm upside either. Bulls must retake 5,558–5,620 to reset the structure; until then, risk is skewed lower.
SX5E Index
DAX Index
Four months of sideways chop. TD 6 of 9 has bears in short-term control. Resistance remains 24,648, and momentum is flat. Support lies at 23,392 then 22,852. Unless the DAX clears 24,648, this is dead money, leaning defensive.
DAX Index
USGG10YR Index The 10-year closed 4.29, still heavy. Resistance capped at 4.33–4.37, roadmap still points to 4.15. Lower yields are no longer a bullish tailwind — they reflect late-cycle growth concerns. Unless yields reclaim the 200-day, bias is lower.
USGG10yr Index
DXY Index Dollar closed 97.9, lifeless. Support is 96.86 then 95.81. Resistance overhead at 98.91–99.42. Until bulls reclaim 98.9+, bias is lower toward 95.8. A weak dollar with soft equities risks reigniting stagflation chatter.
DXY Curncy
EUR/USD The euro closed 1.17 on TD 5 of 13. Bulls have control, upside to 1.1790. Floor remains 1.1528. Structure is still rangebound, but momentum has tilted higher. Lose 1.1528 and the story flips quickly.
EURUSD Curncy
Gold (GCA Comdty)
Gold closed 3,516, breaking out decisively and now on TD 7 of 9. The coil has resolved higher, with the next target at 3,668. First support now sits at 3,450 (former ceiling turned floor), with 3,382 below. Momentum has shifted firmly to the bulls — the longer consolidation has given this move fuel, and unless 3,450 fails, the roadmap points higher.
GCA Comdty
EEM US (Emerging Markets ETF) EEM closed 49.9, stretched into resistance at 50.7. Support 48.80. Dollar weakness has helped the rally, but positioning looks crowded. Failure at 50.7 risks a reversal.
EEM Equity
