Comment
We identified the April rally and mapped the bounce. Now, the exhaustion setup hasn’t just lined up—it’s printed and completed. The NDX and SPX have confirmed with perfected TD 9 Sells, and the Dow will join them today with a close above 40,669. Add to that a confirmed 9 Sell on the NYSE Composite and a VIX 9 Buy—this is broad-based exhaustion. Everything’s flashing caution. We’ve been flagging this rotation for weeks—the U.S. is stretched and rolling, while Europe remains in a confirmed uptrend. The SX5E is on TD Combo 4 of 13, and the DAX at TD Combo 7 of 13, both trend-intact, with no active sells. The setup hasn’t changed—we stay long Europe vs. U.S. The rotation is real, and the models continue to back that view.
Charts
Nasdaq 100 (NDX): 9-13-9 Exhaustion — Book It. This is the cleanest setup on the board. The NDX just completed a full TD 9-13-9 exhaustion sequence, culminating Monday with a perfected Sequential 9 Sell, days after the Combo 13 printed on May 1st. All of it happened while price pushed into the 200-day MA for the first time since the March rejection. That’s your signal…The NDX also hit the Trend Factor level at 17,865, with the next ceiling up at 18,301. Internals are stretched—McClellan Oscillator pinned, breadth narrowing, sentiment flipping. We’re sitting squarely in the 17,580–18,317 resistance zone we flagged weeks ago. Add in a rising VIX with a 9 Buy and the setup is complete. Sell strength. Stop = close above the 200-day.
S&P 500 (SPX): Tagged the Target — Perfected 9 Sell. Textbook execution. We flagged 5,641–5,669 as our tactical ceiling. Monday’s high? 5,669.30. A perfected TD 9 Sell printed into that level. The Trend Factor target at 5,674 is now complete, and the 200-day MA at 5,746 sits just overhead—but this is where asymmetry flips….The McClellan Summation Index just fired a 9 Sell. Sentiment is no longer a contrarian tailwind—AAII bulls are back, NAAIM jumped, SPX is extended, and VIX is curling higher. If 5,580 breaks, the unwind gets sharp. Until then, we trim exposure and respect the signal.
Dow Jones (INDU): TD 8 of 9 — Exhaustion Incoming. The Dow was first out of the gate off the April lows, launched by a weekly TD 9 Buy. Now it’s the last to fire—TD 8 of 9 completed Monday, with the 9 Sell set to trigger today on any close above 40,669. It’s happening right into the February congestion shelf, where rallies have stalled before. You don’t wait for the print—you sell into it. The signal is baked. The tape is stretched. The VIX just triggered a 9 Buy, confirming the reversal setup is broadening. With SPX and NDX already flashing exhaustion, the Dow is the final domino. This is where you take risk down, not hope for more.
