Thoughts from the Divide

This is the final Thoughts From The Divide. It arrives as markets transition — not collapsing or accelerating, just quietly rewriting the narrative that drove asset prices this past year. No drama. Just a shift in tone. Markets, unlike politicians, don’t need a spotlight to pivot. For months, the “Trump trade” worked as macro shorthand. […]

A couple of weeks back, I mentioned the fact that both the Treasury Secretary and the President’s nominee for Fed Chair had both worked with/for Stan Druckenmiller, one of the best speculators of our time. I said that I planned to spend a little more time looking at Mr Druckenmiller’s recent interviews. Naturally, this extends […]

I often find myself wanting to discuss two or more interesting news stories, but struggle to find a pleasing way to link them. This week it’s much easier. CCP policy is the thread connecting two apparently disparate stories: China reigning in silver speculation on its exchanges, and Xi’s response to US foreign policy, which Chinese […]

I was tempted to write about the recent weakness in software stocks attributed to concerns that AI would eat their lunch, because the “SaaSpocalypse” is nigh: well, maybe. Of course, the real reason would have been that I could take one of my typically low-key “victory laps”. Quite a few of this substack’s recent posts […]

I spent some time in Wisconsin last week (yes, it was cold), with a group of investors swapping ideas (and terrible jokes). The invite was particularly useful for me because I don’t get out much – suburban basements may not be so different to Socrates’ “caves”. Some of the presentations helped confirm some of my […]

I’m getting on a bit these days, but the recent spat between the EU and US over Greenland reminded me of one of those rather boring microeconomic lectures I suffered decades ago about the difference between complements and substitutes. For those who have not suffered similarly, substitutes \are perceived as alternatives, meaning that increased consumption […]

The word competition comes from the Latin competere, which combines com- (“with, together”) and petere (“to seek, strive, rush at”). It entered English via French around the late 16th/early 17th century, initially meaning “to strive alongside another” for something, but evolved over time from the Latin’s sense of “meeting or agreeing” to the modern sense […]

First things first, Happy New Year! I hope Santa brought all of you something fun and in tune with the Zeitgeist, like this chap! I’m just glad that I will be spared from watching The Polar Express repeatedly for at least another year.  The “joy” of trade data is that it’s very easy to construct […]

We have seen busier news weeks, but we’re not sure when we last saw a more interesting news week. Let’s start at the intersection of AI and credit, an area that has been a particular focus for us of late. Regular readers will not have been surprised that TFTD was interested in the recent fuss […]