- S&P 500 DeMark exhaustion looms as bulls lose momentum—6,225 is the line that flips the script.
- Dow (INDU): Combo 12 of 13 fading MACD—below 44,240 confirms the stall turns into a slip.
- Nasdaq (CCMP): Twin 12s—momentum gone, one more close and the exhaustion sirens go off.
- DAX: Failed breakout and reset to Setup 1—trend is gone, and price looks heavy.
- Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E): Bearish price flip already in, 5,288 is the tripwire to real downside.
- 10-Year (USGG10YR): TD 11 of 13 with resistance looming—yields may be running on fumes.
- Dollar (DXY): Countertrend bounce working a new Setup—Wednesday’s close could be pivotal.
- EURUSD: Post-13 drift continues—1.18 caps it, and 1.16 keeps it from breaking.
If you’re trying to make sense of this market, good luck—because this is the kind of tape that makes a mockery of narrative. The S&P and Nasdaq both hit new all-time highs midweek, then quietly drifted lower—just enough to keep the bears chest-thumping while still being wrong. Again. The Dow rolled, small caps coughed, and copper surged 13% on fresh Trump tariff threats, because apparently inflation risk now comes in press release form. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes showed a committee split on rate cuts, but the market yawned. You’d think with all this “uncertainty,” we’d see some actual volatility, but instead we’ve got SPX up nearly 25% in three months and the VIX still curled up in a corner like it’s waiting for a Fed put that never left. Beneath the surface, high beta’s been bleeding, momentum has cracked, and the Goldman HF basket looks like it’s been through a wood chipper. And yet the indexes refuse to break. Every failed top call gets absorbed by passive flows, while the bears huff and puff about divergences, only to get steamrolled by another low-volume ramp. Maybe they finally get their move this week—but it’s already too late for them to be right when they’ve been so consistently, spectacularly wrong. This isn’t about being early—it’s about surviving long enough to matter. Breadth is narrowing, internals are softening, and exhaustion signals are building, not yet triggering. We’re approaching a pressure point, but until price confirms it, the trend is still intact. This is where markets grind the most people up—drifting higher just long enough to force capitulation before the break. We’re watching the levels, tracking the DeMark, and keeping it tactical. Let’s get into it.
The S&P 500 sits on a TD Combo 12 of 13, one solid close above 6,280 away from triggering the full Combo 13 Sell. The TD Sequential 13 Sell already fired on July 3rd and remains active, hanging over the tape like an anchor quietly dragging. The level to watch now is 6,225.52—the TD Reference Close Down—and a break below it gives the bears the confirmation they’ve been craving, a proper price flip to shift sentiment. Until then, they’re still just yelling into the wind while the bulls hold the wheel. Initial support shows up around 6,025, where the first wave of dip-buyers will likely step in. On the upside, the next propulsion target is 6,305—close enough to matter if we keep grinding. MACD’s losing altitude—momentum’s fading, not failing. So while the ship’s still afloat and pointed north, the charts are starting to creak, and anyone paying attention should know when it’s time to ease off the throttle. After two months of straight-line gains, the bears may finally get the pullback they’ve been calling for. Whether it’s a real storm or just fog on the horizon remains to be seen.
S&P 500
The Dow continues to chop sideways just below its late June highs, but now sits on TD Combo 12 of 13, with the TD Sequential 13 Sell already completed and still active. That puts us in the classic “stall zone”—momentum’s fading, signals are stacked, and bulls are just grinding the tape sideways. We haven’t seen a bearish price flip yet, but we’re inching closer. A close below 44,240.76, the TD Reference Close Down, would do the trick and hand the bears their entry confirmation. Until then, bulls can argue it’s just a consolidation at the highs. The MACD is still elevated but starting to roll over—no collapse, but definitely showing signs of fatigue. If the Dow does break lower, the next support comes in at 43,529, and under that, the 50-day at 42,616 is your first real structural shelf. On the upside, we’re still capped below the TD Risk Level at 44,558, with no clear ignition point above. This setup is classic late-stage trend: signals are leaning bearish, but price action hasn’t confirmed it yet. Feels like a market waiting for a reason to move, and it won’t take much to tip it either way. For now, we drift.
INDU
The Nasdaq Composite is still grinding at the highs, but the setup’s getting tired. TD Combo is at 12 of 13, and TD Sequential is also sitting at 12 of 13—one more close and both exhaustion signals are live. No price flip yet, but a break below 20,412.52 (TD Reference Close Down) gives the bears their trigger. MACD’s flatlining—momentum’s fading, not breaking, but the juice is gone. If we slip, support comes in at 19,994, then 19,630. Bulls need a push above 20,611 to shake it off. Until then, we’re one close away from double DeMark exhaustion in a market that’s already stretched thin.
CCMP Index
The DAX made its high on July 10 and has done nothing since—just chopping sideways with no conviction. The TD Sequential and Combo 13 Sell signals from May have fully run their course and are no longer in play. What matters now is the failed breakout and the stall just under the TD Risk Level at 24,462.24. We’re back at Setup 1, which tells you the clock just restarted and momentum has faded. There’s no bearish price flip yet, but 23,787.45 is the line to watch—break that and we’re looking at downside pressure toward 23,392, then the rising 50-day near 23,285. MACD’s rolling over, not collapsing, but it confirms what the price is already saying—this move is tired. Bulls had their shot on July 10 and couldn’t stick the landing. The DAX isn’t breaking down, but it’s lost trend and looks heavy up here.
DAX Index
The Euro Stoxx 50 is losing altitude. The TD Sequential 13 Sell printed at the June high and did its job—no breakout, just chop that’s starting to roll. We’ve now got a bearish price flip, but we’re still trading above the TD Reference Close Down at 5,288.81, so no confirmation yet. The rally stalled cleanly at the TDST Level Up at 5,430.15—bulls tried to push through and failed. MACD is starting to fade, momentum’s gone, and price is hovering right on the 50-day. If we break below 5,288, that opens the door to 5,151 (200-day), then the Prop exhaustion level at 5,121. Bulls had their chance, didn’t convert, and now we’ve got a tired market with a completed 13 and no fuel. Not broken—but bending.
SX5E Index
The 10-year-USGG10YR is quietly pushing higher, now trading at 4.43 and holding above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. We’ve got a TD Setup already at 9, and the Sequential count is now 11 of 13—so we could easily print a TD Sequential 13 Sell later this week. No Combo yet, but the message is the same: we’re bumping into resistance with momentum fading. Overhead, 4.57 remains the key level—TDST Level Up and Prop exhaustion stacked together—and so far, it’s been untouched. MACD is barely positive, signaling more drift than conviction. We’re still holding above the TD Reference Close Up at 4.40, which keeps the short-term tone intact, but the clock is ticking. A move below 4.33 (TD Reference Close Down) flips it and opens the door to 4.19, then 4.15. Yields are drifting higher for now, but with the Sequential countdown near exhaustion, this move’s running out of room. If 4.57 doesn’t break, this rally dies on the vine.
USGG10YR
The Dollar-DXY printed a TD Sequential 13 Buy on July 2, followed by a TD 9 Buy on July 3—a classic countertrend pairing. Since then, we’ve seen a slow, grinding bounce that’s trying to build into something more. We’re now working toward a potential Setup 9 completion on Wednesday, which could finally clean up a lot of the sideways chop that’s defined the last few weeks. We’ve been bearish on the dollar, and the broader trend still leans that way, but this week is pivotal. If DXY can confirm a reversal, the tone flips. First test is 98.76, a wall of prop exhaustion and momentum resistance. Clear that, and we’re looking at 99.42 (TDST Level Up) as the real hurdle. Fail there, and this bounce fades like the others. But if it sticks, we’ve got a potential trend change on our hands. Either way, Wednesday matters.
DXY Index
EURUSD is still stuck in chop after a stack of TD 13 Sells fired off in June. We’re now at TD Setup 7 of 9, working through a slow bleed lower with no urgency from either side. Momentum has completely stalled—MACD’s flat, price is drifting, and the tape has turned sideways-to-lower. Support comes in at 1.16, and below that is the 50-day near 1.15. Resistance is stacked at 1.18, right at the TDST Level Up, where the 13s started stacking. Until we clear that, the pressure remains on the downside. Not broken, but soft—and looking like it wants to drift lower into the back half of the week.
EURUSD
Gold has been stuck in a range since April—trendless, sideways, and waiting for a reason to move. Resistance sits at 3413, initial support at 3316, then a bigger shelf down at 3276. No TD 13s recently, just noise and chop. MACD’s still negative, price is clinging to the 50-day, and there’s no directional momentum. This is a market coiling. We’re overdue for a break—one way or the other—and whichever side gives first should clear out the indecision. Until then, we’re stuck in drift mode.
Gold-GCA
