The board’s still lit — TD 13s are stacked across the map. SPX, DAX, CCMP, multiple European indices — all showing exhaustion, but the tape won’t crack until the flips confirm. Last week gave us some movement: SPX flipped bullish, SX5E triggered a flip without confirmation, and DAX printed a 13 with a bearish flip. But this isn’t a full unwind — yet. It’s still a “wait for the close” game, and until key TD Reference levels break, we’re stuck in a high-risk zone with low conviction.
Internals aren’t helping. Breadth is weak, momentum’s fractured, and only 38% of NYSE names are above their 30-week MAs. A/D lines rolled over in mid-May. Margin debt’s been falling. This isn’t broad strength — it’s narrow, rotational, and fragile. That said, there is leadership. Our top growth names just notched another all-time high, trading well above their 200-day. That’s institutional demand, not noise. SPX, COMP, and QQQ are all holding above their 50s, and NYSE/ASE Most Active gauges are at their highest levels since October. The tape is split — but what’s working, keeps working. That said, the clock’s ticking — exhaustion risk is peaking, and price is leaning heavy across the board.
Summary:
• SPX: Still stuck in chop — TD Combo 13 sell active, and 5921 is the pivot that keeps the bear case alive.
• INDU: Back below the 200-day — hold under 42,343 and the next leg lower opens.
• CCMP: Agg 13 printed, but no flip yet — rising risk, but not actionable until it triggers.
• SX5E: Bearish flip triggered, but not confirmed below 5326 — watch for a close to activate unwind.
• DAX: Sequential 13 + bearish flip — break 23,629 and the trapdoor opens.
• EUR/USD: Bull trend intact — TD count at 7, dips are still buys above 1.1292.
• DXY: Trend is lower — TD 13 nearly complete, next support is 98.93, then 97.16.
• Gold: Pullback not a break — holding support near $3,200, bias remains higher
SPX: Exhaustion Zone — Flip Wars and 5921 Is the Line
SPX reacted cleanly off the TD Combo 13 sell on May 16 — tested the 200-day, bounced, and then printed a bullish price flip last week. That resets the tape short-term, but the exhaustion signal hasn’t been invalidated. 5921 — the TD Reference Close Up — is still the line. Hold below it, and the bear case stays alive. Break 5802 and the unwind resumes. First real support sits at the 200-day near 5785, then 5640, with deeper levels at 5604 and 5312. This is classic chop in an exhaustion zone — and unless bulls reclaim 5921 with conviction, risk remains skewed lower.
S&P 500
INDU: Sitting on the Edge — 42,343 Is the Pivot
The Dow is back below its 200-day and stuck in no-man’s land. Momentum has stalled, and now it’s all about the close. Monday under 42,343 — the TD Reference Close Up — flips the script and shifts the bias from bulls to bears. No 13 exhaustion yet, but the trend is fading, and price is leaning heavy. Below 42,343 opens the door to 41,603, then 40,726, with bigger downside at 39,371. Tape needs to prove it — otherwise, this bounce looks like fuel for the next leg lower.
Dow Jones Industrial
CCMP: Agg Sequential 13 Hit — Needs a Flip to Matter
CCMP just hit an Aggressive Sequential 13 sell — but without a bearish price flip, it’s just noise. No signal, no action. Price is still holding above the TD Ref Close at 18,737 and hovering just under TD Risk at 19,019. Exhaustion risk is rising, but without a flip, it’s not actionable. If we get it, support lines up quick: 200-day at 18,463, then 18,034, and 17,775. For now, stand by — don’t press.
Nasdaq Composite
EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E): Flip Triggered — But No Confirmation Yet
SX5E printed a bearish price flip last week, but we didn’t close below the TD Reference Close at 5326 — so it’s not actionable yet. We’re currently on TD Sequential 11 of 13 and Combo 9 of 13, so exhaustion risk is building. Price stalled under 5415 and failed, but until we break 5326 on a closing basis, the unwind can’t begin. Support levels stack at the 50-day (5218), 200-day (5082), and gap-fill at 5066. Below that, it’s 4953 then 4728. Until confirmation comes, this is a rising-risk, watch-don’t-chase setup.
EURO STOXX 50
DAX 13 Hit, Flip Confirmed — Now It’s About the Unwind.
The DAX printed a TD Sequential 13 sell last week and just triggered a bearish price flip — that’s the cue to start selling. We add here off the 13, and we press if we get a close below the TD Reference Close Down at 23,629. Price stalled below 24,193, momentum’s rolling over, and support levels stack fast: 23,048, then the 50-day at 22,610, followed by 21,832 and 20,114. Unless we reclaim 24,262, this tape is fading — the unwind has started, confirmation just loads the second leg.
DAX
EURUSD…EUR remains in a confirmed uptrend — the bullish price flip held, and we’re now on bar 7 of 13 in the TD Sequential count. No exhaustion, no reversal. This is textbook consolidation within trend. As long as we hold above 1.1292, the setup stays intact. Upside targets line up at 1.1423, then 1.1676, with a stretch toward 1.17+. Unless we get a bearish flip, this is still a buy-the-dip tape.
EURUSD
US Dollar Index DXY bears are in control. Multiple TD 9s already printed, which means multiple TD 13s are stacking. We’re now on bar 12 of 13 off the April TD 9 setup — last week’s fresh TD Setup 9 just resets the clock for another leg lower. Momentum is bleeding, structure is broken, and there’s no sign of reversal. Watch 98.93 as the next near-term support — break that and it opens the door to 97.16, then 96.61, and finally 95.84. Trend remains lower — no reason to fade it.
Dollar Index
Gold-GCA
Gold’s pulling back this week — down ~2% after ripping nearly 5% last week — but this is classic consolidation, not a breakdown. Price failed to clear the key resistance at $3,394, and the rejection triggered some technical selling, but the structure remains intact. We’re holding above $3,235 (TD Risk) and sitting right on top of solid support around $3,228–$3,200. No active DeMark exhaustion on the downside, and momentum hasn’t cracked. As long as we stay above that zone, the bias remains higher — this looks more like a reset than a reversal.
GCQ4 Commodity
