Market Overview
In the US, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones remain in confirmed downtrends, rejecting key resistance levels and reinforcing a broader risk-off sentiment. Market breadth remains weak, with the NYSE Advance-Decline Line failing to confirm new highs since November and both ASE and OTC Advance-Decline Lines at 30-year lows, signaling continued deterioration beneath the surface. Market internals have not confirmed a durable bottom, as the VIX’s move below 20 has yet to trigger renewed risk appetite. Sentiment indicators show US equity allocations at record lows, but downside risks persist until key resistance levels are reclaimed. Short-term bounces are selling opportunities, and downside targets remain in focus. In stark contrast, European equities remain relatively strong, with the DAX maintaining its uptrend and the EURO STOXX 50 supported.
Market Breakdown & Trade Recommendations:
- SPX: Downtrend confirmed, nine sessions below key resistance (5,748); support at 5,521, 5,479, 5,393—sell rallies.
- INDU: TD 9 confirmed reversal, below key resistance; support at 41,488, 40,029—sell any strength.
- CCMP: Failed at 19,808, oversold bounce unwound; support at 17,303, 16,800—sell.
- DAX: Bulls in control, TD 9 intact; targets 23,428, 24,087—hold.
- USGG10YR: Bears in control, TD 4 of 13; targets 4.04%, 3.81%—sell rallies.
- SX5E: Bulls hold momentum, TD 7 of 13 in play; targets 5,588, 5,734—hold.
- DXY: TD 9 (March 14) confirmed downtrend; support at 103.244, 98.07—sell.
- EUR/USD: 200DMA breakout (March 5) intact, TD 9 (March 14) setup supports upside; targets 1.0945, 1.1064, 1.1400—buy pullbacks.
- Gold: Bulls in control, trend extended; targets 3,052, 3,198—buy dips.
SPX Confirmed downtrend … below the 200-day moving average (5,748) for the ninth straight session, with Bar TD Seq 3 of 13 and TD Combo 8 of 13 signaling continued bearish pressure. The key support levels to watch are 5,521, 5,479, and 5,393—a break below these would deepen the decline. Recent rallies have stalled at resistance, reinforcing the trend of fading bounces.
INDU Remains vulnerable to further downside, with last week’s TD 9 confirming a reversal and reinforcing a sell-the-rally approach. The index closed just below its 200-day moving average, and with the TDST level now qualified and confirmed, it joins the S&P and Nasdaq-100 in a broader downtrend. With the oversold RSI condition fully unwound, initial support levels to watch are 41,488, followed by 40,029—a break below these levels would accelerate downside momentum.
CCMP Remains under pressure, with yesterday’s failure to close above the upside trigger level of 19,808 confirming that the recent bounce was merely an unwinding of short-term oversold conditions. The inability to sustain momentum underscores continued weakness, with initial support at 17,303, followed by 16,800. The broader trend remains bearish, and without a decisive move higher, the market remains vulnerable to further downside.
DAX Bulls remain in control with TD 9 of 13 in play, targeting 23,428, then 24,087. The trend remains intact as long as support holds, with momentum favouring further upside.
SX5E Bulls remain in control with TD 7 of 13 in play, targeting 5543/81, then 5,734. Momentum remains strong, supporting further upside as long as key levels hold.
USGG10YR Remains under pressure, with bears in control as TD 4 of 13 targets 4.04%, then 3.81%. The sustained decline reflects broader risk-off sentiment, and with no clear reversal signal, yields remain vulnerable to further downside.
DXY TD 9 (March 14) confirmed the downtrend, with key levels to watch at 103.244, then 98.07. Momentum favours further weakness unless a reversal signal emerges.
EUR/USD TD 13/9 signals consolidation as the pair jockeys for positioning, with the break above the 200DMA (March 5) reinforcing upside potential. The second TD 9 (March 14) setup suggests further gains, with 1.0945 as the next key level to clear, followed by 1.1064, then 1.1400.
Gold Bulls firmly in control as targets continue to be met and breached, with the next levels at 3,052, then 3,198. The trend remains extended, reinforcing a buy-the-dip approach on pullbacks.
