Comment
On Monday, our piece focused on the DXY and a pivotal TD 13 sell signal, potentially marking a significant turning point. Fast forward a few days, and an acceleration in dollar weakness is already exposing vulnerabilities across the major US indices, putting the bears firmly in control. Indeed, my colleague Julian Brigden has raised the possibility that between the US’s stance towards European security and the possibility of a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”, capital flows that have funded US Exceptionalism for the last decade are now under threat, ushering in a period where US stocks substantially underperform foreign equities and precious metals. Stay tuned.
Summary
- S&P 500 (SPX): Bears are in control with a recent price flip, but today’s market behavior is needed to confirm a top.
- NASDAQ Composite (CCMP): Bears currently dominate with price flips, with today’s trading additional data essential for confirming a top.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU): Recent market activities suggest a potential top, with signs of further downside.
- EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E): Multiple TD 13 sells and bearish flips seen; today’s market outcome will be critical for confirmation.
- Gold: A TD 13 sell signals a possible peak, though the primary uptrend may continue with expected consolidation.
S&P 500 (5955) TD 13 sell, price flip and a TD 3 of 9 has bears in control. Watch 5887 for initial support, then 5872/5678, 5904. Resistance at 6009, 6074, then 6144.
Nasdaq Composite (19026): Bears command the scene with a TD 13-3 Sequential sell. Major support is at 18991, then 18723/14. Resistance markers are set at 19463, 19661, and 19955
Dow Jones (43621): Last week’s bearish tape was sustained, but the 43439-support held. Next support levels are at 42518 and 42067, with resistance at 44627, 45059, and 45575.
EURO STOXX 50 (5447.90) Multiple TD 13 sell signals and a bearish price flip—similar vibes across DAX, CAC, SXXP, and IBEX suggest a top with downside risk. Watch 5399 for initial support; break below points to 5271 and 5255. Resistance sits at 5515, with tougher hurdles at 5558 and 5581.
Gold-GCA (2929) TD 13 sell and bearish price flip. A lower open/lower low/down close would confirm downside continuance. Watch 2909, 2844 and 2785 for support. Watch 2956 for initial resistance. Then 2996 and 3030.
