LOCKED MI2 Chart Point: Housing, Jobs and Retail Sales

As long as the liquidity induced risk-on feeding frenzy continues, watching the macro is arguably largely irrelevant. However, we think it would be a mistake to ignore the data completely. Not least because, if it deteriorates, central banks might even accelerate their current programmes and the last thing you’d want to do is be unprepared for that bonanza! 

In terms of the data, we want to start with housing. As you know, we believe that despite a massive acceleration in the rate of new home sales in 2019 (which saw the YoY rate exceed 27%), courtesy of appalling affordability, a large proportion of the bounce is little more than base effects, which will wane this spring.