LOCKED MI2 Chart Point: Four Inflation Charts

With risk assets in freefall, this week’s CPI data is more critical than ever. Expectations are for a fall in both the headline and core rates, which conveniently fits the current and pervasive narrative that prices are peaking. While such an outcome would undoubtedly be greeted with relief by markets, we suspect that the greatest sighs will be audible from the core of the FOMC, who in recent months have had to contemplate the possibility of driving the US economy into recession to tame runaway inflation. Given the volatility of all economic data, we usually steer away from forecasting any specific month’s print. However, given the fragility of markets heading into these numbers, we feel compelled to comment.