LOCKED Fed: When is Policy Appropriate?

Financial Conditions, not rates nor the balance sheet, will dictate when policy is appropriate
Currently, monetary policy is at historically easy levels relative to nominal GDP
Conditions need to tighten to slow GDP to sub-trend and reduce job openings by 3mio
Only a significant further decline in equities may be able to deliver that outcome

___________

To read more of this exclusive content, please log in below. If you have an account but have not purchased access or signed up for a free trial, click here.

This research was published outside of your 8-week free trial period. Subscribe to gain access to all our research limitation free.

Start the Conversation!

More Insights

Thoughts From The Divide: The Anti-Trump Trade (And Other Graceful Exits)

February 26, 2026

This is the final Thoughts From The Divide. It arrives as markets transition — not collapsing or accelerating, just quietly rewriting the narrative that drove

Thoughts From The Divide: I’ll have what he’s having!

February 19, 2026

A couple of weeks back, I mentioned the fact that both the Treasury Secretary and the President’s nominee for Fed Chair had both worked with/for

LOCKED Part II: The End of the Basle 3 “Endgame”

February 19, 2026

Summary In our previous note, “The End of Basel III Endgame” (Dec 16th, 2025), we argued that under the guise of curtailing the discretionary use

This research was published outside of your 8-week free trial period. Subscribe to gain access to all our research limitation free.

Thoughts From The Divide: The Anti-Trump Trade (And Other Graceful Exits)

Thoughts From The Divide: I’ll have what he’s having!

LOCKED Part II: The End of the Basle 3 “Endgame”

Social

Research

Legal

Get in touch

Office Hours