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LOCKED MacroCapture: Research Dossier – August 2025

Jay Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech was taken as signalling a September rate cut, as the focus of the monetary authorities shifts from inflation risks towards employment risks. Naturally, markets ran with that without considering the medium-term macroeconomic implications, but is the situation as bullish for risk assets as the initial knee-jerk? Is inflation truly dead, and was Powell’s shift tactical or strategic?

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Wissam Ali
8 months ago

Powell is throwing a bone to an incessant barking dog by signaling a rate cut in September. That dog is starting to bite now by trying to fire Cook and previously trying to find malfeasance in the Eccles building renovation finances. There is something I have learned from reading about wars which is the concept of appeasement: Once a country tries to appease the aggressor to pacify and reach a peace agreement, it actually emboldens the aggressor more and wants more concessions and never wants peace. I am afraid this might be the fate of Powell.

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