Strategic Research

LOCKED MI2 Chart Point: US Stocks at a Crossroads

US stocks are at a Crossroads. If the market can build on its recent gains, it would paint a technical picture which has in the past been associated with 30% average gains. But were it to break down again, it would validate the prior sell signal.  Outcomes will hinge on the Fed and the dollar. Renewed Fed dovishness could easily spook international investors who need to continue feeding the US $100bn per month to fund the deficit.

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June 24, 2025

LOCKED Can the US Dodge the Macro Bullet?

  • The pivot from Trump 1.0 has reduced the immediate growth threat to the economy.
  • Add in benign inflation, and it is arguable that the US faces a Goldilocks outcome
  • But it is premature to make this call, especially as the labour market remains tight
  • Thus rate cuts are playing with fire and support a structural bearish view on US assets
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June 18, 2025

LOCKED Virtual Presentation: Trump 1.0 or 2.0

As we explain in this video, the constant policy oscillation between tariffs and tax cuts is creating binary market outcomes. In this video, we outline our thoughts on the timing of the likely policy resolution, its implications and what we are watching in markets.

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June 2, 2025

LOCKED MI2 Chart Point: Fed Rate Cuts

It is hardly surprising that when the President announced a 90-day pause and shifted his attention to his big, beautiful bill, it raised the possibility that he was reverting to the policies of Trump 1.0. The response of risk assets was euphoric. Indeed, this idea has now been encapsulated in the market’s latest acronym, TACO. Ultimately, we believe the focus will return to tariffs once the budget is passed. However, that is still some months out, and in the interim, as we explained, while this shift might be good for stocks, it focuses the risk back on bonds. 

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May 29, 2025

LOCKED A Trump Pivot?

  • Trump 2.0 had lofty ambitions to address the US’s economic and social ills.
  • However, trade concessions and budget plans suggest a possible policy pivot.
  • All of this in an economy where there are few tangible signs of a recession yet.
  • Hence for now the risks have shifted back to inflation and the bond market
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May 14, 2025

LOCKED MI2 Themes and Positioning

We thought this was a good time to update our “MI2 Themes and Positioning” pieces because, whatever the successes and failures of the recent past, we have to start from where we are, not where we would have liked to be.  As this is an ongoing series, we will briefly explore the Secular, Cyclical and Tactical components of our current analytical framework.

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May 5, 2025

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