LOCKED Year End Outlook into The Inauguration

In Julian’s final offering for the year, we look at the setup in the US economy and markets, as we head into the inauguration. 

• The US is enjoying the benefits of a reflexive cycle. But the setup is inherently fragile
• The economic consequences of President Trump's re-election while positive, aren’t costless
• Yet unsurprisingly markets have only focused on the good news, which creates vulnerabilities
• This week was the wake-up fall for bonds, we have been waiting for, with more to come
• This, together with the realities of Trump’s policies, will be a challenge for equities, that are priced for perfection
• For now, the dollar reigns supreme, but remains very vulnerable, if “Exceptionalism” ends