LOCKED Part 1: Questioning the Narrative

Soft landings do not usually follow Fed tightening cycles, but you wouldn't know that from looking at current market pricing. If anything, markets appear to be pricing another "Goldilocks" scenario. This piece takes a tour through the data to see how plausible a Goldilocks scenario is right now, or whether the markets might just be falling victim to the sin of narrative fitting, which is all too common at cyclical peaks.