LOCKED MI2 Chart Point: Confirmation

Three days after the election, we set out a framework for trading markets up and through Trump’s inauguration in late January. Fast forward a few weeks, and despite our hopes for a burst of robust soft data, at face value, the numbers over the last few weeks have been a little underwhelming. Hence, with markets richly priced after some huge runs, it is hardly surprising that the Trump trades were running out of steam last week. However, just in the nick of time, today’s manufacturing PMIs, while still in contractionary territory, have offered a glimmer of hope that it is premature to dismiss the idea that we are entering the confirmation period. Indeed, today, we want to outline why this could be just the beginning!