Thoughts From The Divide: The Anti-Trump Trade (And Other Graceful Exits)
February 26, 2026
This is the final Thoughts From The Divide. It arrives as markets transition — not collapsing or accelerating, just quietly rewriting the narrative that drove
I see US – Iran war news in media is it high probability. Oil breakout after has hinted at this . I would be interested in Harry’s opinion . You have already expressed this view in past ( reference X handle) this is coming true wow .
So I too can see the continued build-up. Its hard for me to believe that the Administration can climb down now without losing face. I liked oil as a trade because it was one of the very few strategic commodities which had not moved and because I can see several political moves which might impair oil transit (not just Iran). I suspect that the best way to play it is to buy large-cap US oil stocks where the reserves are well away from the potential war zone. The problem is that both sides are unaware of their blind spots. I had thought that Chinese publication of satellite pictures of US bases might reduce the chances of military confrontation because it increased the potential costs to the US. But now I think about it, I suspect that the US administration just has too many hawks in key positions to be concerned about the risks associated with a military confrontation. In the circumstances, the more convexity in your positions the better – i.e. buy cheap options. Sadly, there are no cheap commodity options or equity options.