Thoughts From The Divide: The Anti-Trump Trade (And Other Graceful Exits)
February 26, 2026
This is the final Thoughts From The Divide. It arrives as markets transition — not collapsing or accelerating, just quietly rewriting the narrative that drove
I was reviewing what I said, and I realised something was missing or perhaps not stated clearly enough. We have had a huge bull market, with massive outperformance of US equities. In these circumstances, the question is when we have our next correction and when we have our next bear market. I would not be at all surprised if we have a correction now. But I doubt that a correction in equities now will be much beyond 10% (top to bottom), and I would then expect equities to subsequently recover through Q1 and Q2. Neither would it particularly surprise if the correction was already over. But all that said, it’s very clear that we are seeing steadily increasing challenges for US equities, which point to a bigger underperformance ahead. That will be the dominant move. The only question is when that happens. My guess is that the WH has lots of tools to try to delay an equity bear till after the Midterms. But should we really position our books for that kind of tactical view? Probably not.
Best
Harry
Hi Harry ,
I am tracking SPMO / QQQ ( momentum/growth) for tracking short term Trends . I noticed SPMO notably outperformed QQQ on Friday & today . IF SPMO breaks 125 Then it signals we reenter bull market .
DXY dropped significantly today .
Do you think this is Japanese poll results & lunar new year season are driving the markets higher .
I couldn’t think of another factors turning market .
Thanks,
Ashwin
I want to add I do think there is substantial risk in US equities . I am monitoring key indicators DXY / SOFR / BIZD ( private credit ) /. However I am not macro experienced here so need Harry your inputs .
I track SPMO/QQQ it gave me warning in September/October before correction in November where momentum slowed but QQQ outperformed . But regret I should have acted more quickly . Same ratio is giving opposite signal now was curious for me share and discuss .
Is Julian Brigden set to make a reappearance sometime soon? I’ve been missing his commentary on precious metals during an extremely volatile period for those assets.
I think Bonds have broken to upside . I am not sure if it short term trend .
Subtle price action in BIZD vs regional banks tells me something changed this week I am not sure what it that moved . BIZD show signs of bottoming & Regional Banks ( KRE/IAT etf) show signs of peakin