The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.
As you know, we believe the odds of achieving the perfect soft-landing are low, with the most likely outcome a recession, or if we can make it to early summer without an exogenous shock, a reacceleration of inflation, and with the deciding factor the labour market (“Will SMEs Determine the Direction of the US Economy” 12th Nov).
The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.
Given the reflexive nature of US Exceptionalism, we have always been concerned about the fragility of the US economy. Add to that mix one of the most aggressive political policy agendas in decades, and as we laid out in a three-part series, we’ve believed that the odds of achieving the market’s assumed soft landing were at best 20%.
As we have discussed at length, despite constant cheerleading to the contrary, the relative outperformance of assets like precious metals, ETFs like XME, EM stocks, etc., suggests that with the exception of a handful of tech stocks, as we saw in the early 2000s, US Exceptionalism is over.
In this presentation, we challenge the market narrative that anticipates a smooth, “just right” outcome for growth, inflation, and policy. This is not a call for doom, but a call for discipline — an evidence-based look at where the economy truly stands and how investors can navigate what lies ahead when the base case is anything but Goldilocks. The recording runs for approximately 50 minutes and includes accompanying presentation slides.
The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.
The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.