Strategic Research

LOCKED Japan Roadmap: From Strength to Strength

  • We expected the BoJ to move aggressively, but they are out-hawking even us
  • This suggests a move towards neutral real rates and quicker than currently priced
  • At the same time, driven by disastrous politics, fiscal policy will remain lax 
  • This is the perfect mix for higher yields, a stronger Yen, and a lot higher bank stocks
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LOCKED Trump’s Dollar

  • Its reserve status and most recent capital inflows have kept the dollar very strong
  • However, Trump’s plans for Ukraine suggest an unloved Euro is cheap
  • That is an understatement if increasing talk of a Mar-a-Lago Accord has legs
  • History and our models suggest the dollar is ripe for a 30-40% correction
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LOCKED Ask Me Anything with Julian Brigden – February 2025

In this Ask Me Anything session, Julian explores macro trends, inflation risks, and market outlooks, addressing key concerns such as rising wages, tariffs, and Fed policy. He shares insights on caution around U.S. tech, a preference for European industrials, and potential pressures on bond yields.  Audience questions moderated by MI2’s Steven Sweeney.

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LOCKED Heading Into CPI, Inflation Pressures Build

  • Soft landings are rare because balancing inflation vs employment is tricky
  • In Q3, as labour markets ground to a halt, the recession risks were growing
  • However, post-election, the data suggest a reacceleration in inflation is imminent
  • This could force the Fed to make a binary policy choice with profound implications
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LOCKED Europe: Peak Pessimism Creates Opportunity

  • Investor sentiment towards Germany is at lows last seen in the GFC and Covid 
  • Yet rising European stocks should support consumer confidence and GDP
  • The German election could be the catalyst for dramatic economic change 
  • With the DAX breaking higher, Euribor looks vulnerable, supporting EURUSD
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LOCKED Fed: Late 1960s or Late 1990s?

  • Unlike typical tightening cycles, this time, the Fed stopped shy of Nominal GDP
  • We have only seen this twice before, and the outcomes were polar opposites
  • In the ‘60s, the result was a policy disaster; the ‘90s, triumph and halcyon days
  • The current setup looks more like the ‘60s, leaving the Fed with stark choices   
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LOCKED Just How Easy Is Fed Policy?

  • There have been wobbles but the resilience of the US economy to rate hikes is amazing
  • Surging household wealth, with fixed-rate debt and fiscal spending
  • But our work suggests that liquidity is suppressing the effective Fed Funds rate
  • As a result even before recent stronger data Fed policy was far looser than realised
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LOCKED MI2 Trader: Buy Gold and GDX

In Q4 2023, we advocated buying gold and exited the trade at the end of last year. Yet, despite sitting on the sidelines for the last couple of months, we remain steadfast secular bulls and have been looking for an opportunity to re-enter the trade. Now, the time appears ripe.

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