In this piece, which is a Tactical Brief, there are two sections. Firstly, we will update you on how the soft data (i.e. confidence / survey data) has been volatile but nevertheless broadly confirmatory of Trump-bounce enthusiasm.
Welcome to the MacroCapture Portfolio, where we keep track of our trade recommendations, update trade targets and stops, and aggregate our performance in one place.
In this session, Julian addresses a broad range of critical macroeconomic issues and market trends, responding to questions from the MacroCapture audience. Guided by moderator Steven Sweeney, the conversation delves into investment strategies, prevailing market conditions, and potential economic changes under a Trump 2.0 administration.
Welcome to the Reconnaissance Report. As noted in the summary, this is an opportunity to take a tour through important charts and “check our priors” to test the soundness of our main theses. Additionally, it will allow us to tee up important levels we are watching so that we are primed to take action (as we will share in Hotwire Alerts) when the moment is right. And with that, on to the charts!
In this Ask Me Anything session, Julian Brigden delves into a wide array of pressing macroeconomic topics and market dynamics, answering questions submitted by the MacroCapture audience. Moderated by Steven Sweeney, the discussion touches on investment strategies, market conditions, and insights into potential economic shifts under a Trump 2.0 administration.
Welcome to Macro Capture. We are excited to launch this new product with its singular focus on macro because, as discussed in our promotional videos, we have not seen such an exciting yet challenging macro backdrop in years. The opportunities are immense, but frankly, so are the risks. So strap in!
Whether this is one of your first tastes of the work of Julian and MI2 or you’ve been along for the ride over the more than a decade that Julian and the team have been delivering world-class macro analysis, we want to welcome you to MacroCapture. We have the threefold goal of simplifying the world of macro, educating you on how the macro forces drive markets, and finally, and most importantly, making you money through opportunities with asymmetric risk-reward. With that in mind, we want to break down how the different pieces you’ll receive play into those aims!
Welcome to MacroCapture by MI2 Partners! We’re thrilled to embark on this new era of macro research with you, combining MI2’s best-in-class macro insights with actionable guidance specifically tailored for individual investors. In this inaugural video, Julian Brigden shares his excitement and gives you a high-level view of today’s market dynamics, detailing how U.S. economic strength has been fueled by foreign capital flows and a strong dollar, creating a “virtuous cycle” of growth and wealth accumulation. However, Julian also highlights the fragility within this cycle, explaining through George Soros’s concept of “reflexivity” how shifts in critical factors like dollar strength could drive a major market reversal. This foundational insight will help you navigate potential opportunities and risks as we move forward. As a complement to our institutional research, MacroCapture brings individual investors the same high-quality analysis that drives institutional strategies. Thank you for joining us in this new chapter—hope you enjoy!
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Last November, I wrote about shale as a “bezzle”. This month I want to highlight the rise of leveraged lending as another potential “bezzle”. Leveraged lending and the associated CLOs which buy the loans have been critical to financing the Private Equity buying spree we have had. How robust will this financing be if we have an economic downturn?