LOCKED MacroCapture: Hotwire Alert – May 2, 2025
Sticking to the plan. How to deal with the noise around tariffs.
May 2, 2025
Sticking to the plan. How to deal with the noise around tariffs.
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A handful of comments following Trump’s apparent volte-face. It was triggered by panic. Not so much about the equity market as the bond market.
In last month’s Research Dossier, “Reality Bites”, we developed the idea that the Trump Administration’s honeymoon had come to an end and discussed some of the implications thereof. The piece below is a little more abstract but very much fits into the mold we have been observing for a few years now.
On 31st March, the Monday before Liberation Day, we sent you a short video updating you on our expectations/fears for the announcement of tariffs. We do hope you had time to watch it. Unfortunately, our (almost) worst fears were borne out by the event at the Rose Garden.
MacroCapture Portfolio: your hub for tracking our trade recommendations, monitoring updates to trade targets and stops, and reviewing aggregated performance all in one convenient place.
Despite all the comments from the Administration, investors, especially here in the US, refuse to accept the “reality” that we are at a historical crossroads. Hence, as we approach Liberation Day, we wanted to offer some thoughts.
Europe has been galvanized into action. Germany is moving away from fiscal prudence. The European Commission wants to borrow for defence. Trump is pursuing trade wars and disrupting the world order with foreign policy on the hoof. All this points to a peak in American Exceptionalism. What to do?
Confidence is being shaken by the speed and erratic path of US policy announcements.
MacroCapture Portfolio: your hub for tracking our trade recommendations, monitoring updates to trade targets and stops, and reviewing aggregated performance all in one convenient place.