December 16, 2025

In October, in a three-part series, we explained why we think the odds of achieving a Goldilocks soft-landing are far lower than the market assumes (“Questioning the Narrative”). One reason for our scepticism is that historically, labour markets are momentum plays. Essentially, they don’t track sideways for long. Hence, our view that the current low hire and low fire stasis in the US labour market isn’t a sustainable.