Thoughts From The Divide: The Great Pumpkin!
“So, the stock market, it would affect spending if the stock market went down, but it wouldn’t drop — it wouldn’t drop sharply unless there
October 31, 2025
“So, the stock market, it would affect spending if the stock market went down, but it wouldn’t drop — it wouldn’t drop sharply unless there
In this presentation, we challenge the market narrative that anticipates a smooth, “just right” outcome for growth, inflation, and policy. This is not a call for doom, but a call for discipline — an evidence-based look at where the economy truly stands and how investors can navigate what lies ahead when the base case is anything but Goldilocks. The recording runs for approximately 50 minutes and includes accompanying presentation slides.
A closer look at recent signs of stress in credit markets. Are the recent defaults at companies like Tricolor or First Brands merely isolated cases of poor management or bad luck, or do they signal something broader—echoing Dimon’s warning that “there is never just one cockroach”? This analysis breaks down current conditions, why they matter, and what to watch next.
The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.