September 8, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: Ishiba Quits, LDP Election Likely October 4

Ishiba Quits, LDP Election Likely October 4
August Economy Watcher’s Index Higher
July Current Account Surplus Declines 19.1%
April-June GDP Revised Up from +1.0% to +2.2%
MUFG (8305) Adding to JGB Position, Sees BoJ Policy Rate at 1.5%
“Cash in the Dresser” Down 20% From Peak

September 8, 2025

LOCKED MI2 Chart Point: Watching USDSEK

We believe that the combination of Friday’s weak headline NFP, together with low unemployment, is consistent with both weak labour supply and demand. If that’s correct, aggressive rate cuts aren’t necessarily the solution and risk setting us up for a policy error.

September 8, 2025