US Imposes 25% Tariff on Japan as Trade Talks Continue US President Donald Trump finally ran out of patience with Japan and other recalcitrant trading
Introducing On Our Radar: A new short-form weekly video blog designed to keep you aligned with our evolving macro thinking. Each episode breaks down the key developments shaping the landscape, highlights where the data supports—or challenges—our core views, and shares the charts commanding our attention right now.
Subscribers will not have been surprised by the return of the tariff monster. In our June Research Dossier, “When Fiscal Dominance Met De-Globalization” we wrote,
The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussions over the week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. We hope to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.
According to the economic textbooks, trend GDP in an economy is determined by the growth in the working population plus productivity. Therefore, until AI delivers, cutting rates in the US with unemployment well below NAIRU, and where immigration has accounted for 75% of labour force growth over the last few years, is playing with inflation fire