November 3, 2024

As we discussed on our recent trip to London, when we look at the risks facing the US economy, they look increasingly binary with the odds of the tail risks, i.e. a no-landing or recession, far higher than the generally assumed soft-landing. That isn’t an easy trading backdrop, especially when one of the deciding factors is an election that, at best, is too close to call and, at worst, could end up being bitterly contested. At uncertain times like this, we tend to lean more heavily on price action, and we wanted to share some of the charts on our radar that are at make-or-break levels.