November 12, 2021

LOCKED Macro Insiders: In Focus from Julian – Tall Tales & Cheap Tails

Antipodeans have often been at the forefront of monetary policy experimentation over the course of my career. This time the Wizards of Oz came a cropper. This should highlight the problem with forward guidance taken to extremes and discredit YCC. Whether it matters remains to be seen but for me,  oscillating dislocations have truly started.

 

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LOCKED It’s Always Transitory: A 700-Year History

  • Few current market professionals have experienced rising inflation during their careers
  • Hence the risk of placing too much weight on the recent past and missing the big picture 
  • Research shows that inflation has been transitory and deflation dominant for the last 700yrs 
  • Yet current conditions have historically been associated with higher inflation and real rates 
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