August 5, 2021

Comment

While forecasting NFP seems trivial compared to Henry V’s assault on the battlements, there are times that it is a rather daunting prospect! Indeed, just last month, our work suggested that the number would disappoint, only to get blown away by a whopping print of 850k (“MI2 Chart Point: NFP – It Takes Two to Tango” 1^st July)! However, in yet another example of Wall Street’s love of straight-line extrapolation, this week’s forecast is for 870k, with the whisper number above 900k, which ironically raises the odds they are wrong.