LOCKED Macro Insiders: Flash Update from Julian
I’ve been watching silver and silver miners carefully. The sudden move higher on Friday last week means we need to take action. The rationale follows.
October 21, 2024
I’ve been watching silver and silver miners carefully. The sudden move higher on Friday last week means we need to take action. The rationale follows.
In my pieces over the last few weeks, I have urged caution. I have looked at how the backdrop of economic growth in the US is deteriorating while acknowledging that the latent strength of activity, aided by hyper-financialisation, is yet to categorically turn. For now, the latter trumps the former, it seems. Thus, we remain on a knife edge and there is event risk around the US election just around the corner.
This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
The consensus around a perfectly managed soft landing continues to build. The Fed delivered a 50bps gift to that consensus mid-month but the scale of future expected rate cuts smacks of crisis management. What crisis? Threading the macro-Goldilocks needle will be tough. Surviving AI-related tech disappointment is tougher. Volatility will rise.
I’ve been anticipating some pressure on risk assets in the run-up to the election, hence the recommendation to “Batten Down the Hatches”. I think it’s unlikely that the big rotation will be wholly benign; the dollar will dictate the environment for any change and the scale of the rotation trades are likely to be both large and persistent. Time to line up the candidates.
The employment picture is souring. The Fed is focussed on employment more than inflation. In response to economic weakness, rates and bonds anticipate 250bps of rate cuts in the next twelve months. Equities want to look through the storm to plain sailing in the future. Can they really? Julian thinks not.
This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
The weather changed. No longer should we give risk assets the benefit of the doubt. The VaR shock that swept the markets in early August is just the beginning. Time and Price suggest more heavy weather ahead.
This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
In the latest edition of Macro Insider Talks, Julian Brigden and Raoul Pal join host Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners to explore what the latest economic developments mean for their respective frameworks, where they see markets moving next, and how to allocate over various time horizons. Followed by questions from the Pro Macro community.