Japan Update

LOCKED Japan Update: BoJ Raises Policy Rate to 0.75%, Highest Since 1995

• BoJ Raises Policy Rate to 0.75%, Highest Since 1995
• November Nationwide Core CPI +3.0%
• LDP, DPP Agree to Raise Tax-Free Income Limit to ¥1.78 Million, Link to CPI
• Foreigners Largest Net Buyers of Japanese Equities Since 2013
• Banks Raise Demand Deposit Interest to 33-Year High

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December 19, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: BoJ Expected to Continue Rate Hikes in 2026

• BoJ Expected to Continue Rate Hikes in 2026
• November Tourist Arrivals Up 10.4%, Growth in Chinese Arrivals Slows
• October Machinery Orders Up 7.0%
• November Exports to US Rebound
• ¥18.3 Trillion Supplementary Budget Passes
• 10-Year JGB Yield Hits New Cycle High
• Government Considers Ending Road Tax Subsidy for Electric Vehicles
• Honda Motor (7267) Japan, China Production Halted by Chip Shortage
• Toray (3402) to Raise Carbon Fiber Prices by 10% to 20%

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December 17, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: Tankan Shows Continued Improvement

• Tankan Shows Continued Improvement
• Katayama Signals MoF on Board with Rate Hike
• BoJ Report Shows Most Firms Plan to Raise Wages by Same Amount as Last Year
• JGBs Sold as Rate Hikes Expected to Continue
• Winter Bonuses Top ¥1 Million for First Time

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December 15, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: Nikkei Confirms BoJ Rate Hike Next Week

• Nikkei Confirms BoJ Rate Hike Next Week
• Impact of US Tariffs on Japanese Corporate Earnings Less Than Expected
• Corporate Tax Incentives for Wage Hikes to be Eliminated for All but Small Companies
• Government Considers Minimum Tax for Incomes Over ¥100 Million
• November Central Tokyo Office Vacancy Rate Drops to 2.44%
• Nippon Steel (5401) Boosts Capital Spending as China Acts to Curb Steel Dumping
• 2025 Rice Harvest Up 10% 

 

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December 12, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: LDP Proposes Plan to Boost Capital Investment

• LDP Proposes Plan to Boost Capital Investment
• November Corporate Price Index Up 2.7%
• With Rate Hike in December a Given, Next Hike Likely in July 2026
• 2-Year JGB Yield Hits 1.075%
• JGB Expense Could Double If Forecast Rate Rises to 2.5%
• Canon (7751), Dai Nippon Printing (7912) Testing Cheaper Chip Making Process
• Nippon Paper (3862) to Raise Packaging Prices by 10%

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December 10, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: 20-Year JGB Yield Hits 2.950%, Highest Since February 1999

• 20-Year JGB Yield Hits 2.950%, Highest Since February 1999
• Strong Earthquake Hits Northern Honshu, Tsunami Warning in Effect
• October Real Wages Fall 0.7%
• November Bankruptcies Down 7%, Farm Failures Hit Record
• Japanese Corporations Issue Record Amount of Overseas Bonds
• Chinese Fighter Targets Japanese F15 Near Okinawa
• July-September GDP Revised Down

 

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December 8, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: December Rate Hike Becoming More Certain, More to Come

• December Rate Hike Becoming More Certain, More to Come
• 10-Year JGB Yield Hits 1.950%, Equities Can’t Ignore Higher Rates
• October Real Consumption Falls 3.0%
• Government May Exclude Large Companies from Wage Hike Tax Breaks
• Takaichi Wants to Normalize Budget Process
• Chamber of Commerce Says USDJPY Should Be 130 or Less

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December 5, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: JGB Yields Hit New Highs, All Eyes on 30-Year Auction

• JGB Yields Hit New Highs, All Eyes on 30-Year Auction
• Metalworkers’ Union Asks For ¥12,000 Increase in Base Pay
• Nonperforming Loans Hit Record Low
• Japan to Lift Restrictions on Defense Exports
• Nissin Foods (2897) to Raise Instant Ramen Prices by 5% to 11%

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December 3, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: Ueda “Announces” December Rate Hike

• Ueda “Announces” December Rate Hike
• Coalition Secures Lower House Majority as Kaikaku no Kai Joins LDP
• Cabinet Approves Final Supplementary Budget of ¥18.3 Trillion, ¥11.7 Trillion in New JGBs
• Takaichi Wants to Normalize Budget Process
• 10-Year JGB Yield Hits 1.875% as Rate Hike Fully Priced
• Quarterly Corporate Report Shows Higher Earnings, Slower Capex

 

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December 1, 2025

LOCKED Japan Update: BoJ Dropping Hints That Rates Will Go Up in December

• BoJ Dropping Hints That Rates Will Go Up in December
• Takaichi Calls for Wage Hikes to Match 2024 Levels
• METI Proposes Tax Cuts to Boost Capital Spending
• 5-Year JGB Yield Highest Since June 2008 on Rate Hike Concern
• October Department Store Sales Up 4.3%
• Japan DOGE Begins Operations

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November 25, 2025