Institutional Research

ALL PUBLICATIONS

Year

Category

Search

December 16, 2025
  • Despite buying 40bn T-Bills, the Fed is travelling to a far smaller balance sheet
  • This requires ongoing regulatory relief and is a policy of monetary expansion
  • There is a clear historical analogue in the late 50s - early 60s
  • The shift has far-reaching micro and macro implications

 

December 16, 2025
In October, in a three-part series, we explained why we think the odds of achieving a Goldilocks soft-landing are far lower than the market assumes (“Questioning the Narrative”). One reason for our scepticism is that historically, labour markets are momentum plays. Essentially, they don’t track sideways for long. Hence, our view that the current low hire and low fire stasis in the US labour market isn’t a sustainable.
December 9, 2025
As you know, it’s been our view for a while that investors’ assumption of a soft landing in the US was likely misplaced. Rather, the most likely scenario is either a reacceleration of inflation and growth or a recession, with the determining factor being the labour market.
December 3, 2025

In the market section, we outlined that for a myriad of factors, almost every client expected renewed dollar weakness to be one of the key macro events in 2026. Yet, no one was currently "running material FX risk".

November 28, 2025

The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.

November 28, 2025

In this conversation, MI2’s Harry Melandri sits down with colleague, Jeff Uscher, to explore the global consequences of a profound shift in industrial policy—and why Japan is rapidly becoming central to the macro narrative. Harry presents Jeff as a uniquely valuable member of the MI2 team, highlighting his fluency in Japanese, his unparalleled access to policymakers, and a 45-year career spanning trading desks, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and Medley Global Advisors. Jeff’s ability to interpret the intersection of policy, markets, and corporate behavior sets the tone for a wide-ranging discussion on capital flows, equity markets, and monetary dynamics.

November 25, 2025

More content for you in an easily digestible format! The Japan News Weekly Digest is our weekly summary of the Japan Update. This piece encapsulates and references the Japan Updates published in the last week so you can easily understand what you may need to dig into.

As a quick reminder, the Japan Update, our market commentary piece, is uniquely sourced from Japanese language publications. Published 10-15 times a month and written by Jeff Uscher, a Western educated and US located, fluent Japanese financial writer. You can always sign up to receive the Japan Update when it is initially published in your account notification settings. As always, please reach out with any questions or comments!

 

November 24, 2025
  • Clients increasingly accept the reflexive fragility inherent with the current US cycle
  • Given this and the deficit, the Administration’s only logical option is to “run it hot”
  • Clients are most focused on AI and credit risks, and offered some real insight
  • They are frustrated by fixed income and waiting for opportunities to trade FX
 
November 21, 2025

The Weekly Lens aims to give you a concise sense of MI2 internal discussion over the past week. It reflects what we have been reading and discussing, and how those discussions are influencing our view of the macro environment. The aim is to give you some idea of how our thinking is evolving.